From the Background in the book
Back in 2004 as my work on a PEM fuel cell research project wound down there were concerns building in the news that the various regulatory programs, both in the US and else ware, were adversely affecting energy production. This was a subject of which prior experiences to include the one winding down were familiar to me from work done when I worked at General Electric, first in their R&D labs near their main production facility in Schenectady, New York and later in Erie Pennsylvanian building Diesel Electric Locomotives. With some time now available it didn’t take long with the now well established web resources for me to acquire additional technical knowledge on this subject.
After tentative research started Al Gore’s documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” was released in 2006; this documentary was produced by Davis Guggenheim and it was a story about how the burning of fossil fuels were destroying the planet. It seemed to be targeted at young adults without the education to discern truth from fiction and it was very successful in achieving negative awareness on the subject. Unfortunately, the message in that documentary was not factually correct and appeared to be only an emotional appeal to support the regulation of Carbon Emissions’ (CO2) in some form of Carbon Tax. Governments always need more money and this seemed to be a way for them to achieve that end. Unfortunately, almost all our energy comes from carbon based fuels and the proposed taxes would significantly add to the cost of producing energy. Since cheap energy is the very heart of a modern industrial society this would have disastrous economic effects.
An interesting fact, Al Gore was one of the investors that had helped set up a Carbon Trading exchange in Chicago along with a young Barack Obama (on the board of the major investor The Joyce Foundation located in Chicago) that they named the Chicago Carbon Exchange CCX in 2003. When The House of Representatives bill HR 2454 (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009) was not passed by the US Senate in 2009 the CCX exchange folded the following year, 2010. Gore has been very vocal on this subject and if HR 2454 had been passed by the US Congress Gore would have become very wealth; so the question is was his involvement because he believed what he was promoting or because what he was promoting would have made him very wealthy?
By 2007 it was becoming clear that there were holes in the theory (Anthropogenic Climate Change) that was used to justify the reduction of carbon and that changed my view that this might be a real issue into the realization that this was going to be very bad and unnecessary if HR 2454, or any like bill, actually implemented. By 2008 this project was taking up a significant amount of my time and after the financial collapse, almost full time for a couple of years. During this time a method was found to model the world’s climate that appeared to work; and by 2012 it was virtually certain that this model was showing what was actually going on in the climate at the macro level.
This book is a summary of almost a decade of technical work which started in 2004, ten years ago. Although my background is neither physics nor chemistry those subjects and others such as climatology are part of my technical background as well as mathematics and statistics. Then forty years of experience as an engineer, researcher and inventor, much in the field of energy, does allow one to study and make observations on the movements of things especially when they have very obvious patterns. This book is based on observations and modeling and that is certainly something that someone with an economics and engineering background can do even without a PhD. But I should add here that this is not a book in the normal sense; it’s more a series of discussions taken from various papers and studies that I’ve written over the last decade.
This is a graphic of the energy flows in the Earths atmosphere the represents the energy flows that keep the Earths Temperature Stable that I created after I understood what was happening. Will Happer was instrumental in my education on the “real” physics involved!
I have tried to put the works in an order that makes sense but since this is a composite there is some duplication in a few places.
Predicting what will happen tomorrow or years from now has never been easy, and never will be since there are always the messy and unforeseen things that get in the way. But having said that when a forecast is desired and a model or simulation is constructed and there is sufficient relevant information available, it may be possible to construct a model that works — as long as conditions do not change. Finding information that correlates into causal relations is the key to the success of any model; but it’s also very easy to fall into the trap of correlation but no cause and effect as data streams often move together but for many and varied reasons, some of which are not causal.
For example we have a road coming from the south going north turning to the west and entering a gap in some mountains that are in the way. There is also a railroad line coming from the east and going west passing though the same gap for the same reason and they run parallel to each other as that is the best way through the mountains. For the time they are both in the gap they run together and in the same direction so that a train and a car could be traveling next to each other and maybe even at the same speed through the entire gap. An observer in the mountains could say after observing both moving together and in the same direction that both were going to the same place. That observer could not know that only a few miles up the gap the road and the track would go their separate way.
We have the same situation with anthropogenic climate change where from the 1970’s until just a few years ago when both CO2, as measured by NOAA, and global temperatures, as measured by NASA seemed to be going up at a similar rate. The issue wasn’t that they were or weren’t moving together but whether it was coincidence or correlation with cause and effect. Models that are designed and built around incomplete data no matter how well indented to not work once the conditions change. During this period it is a fact that both moved together, just like the car and train, but before then and ever since, they were going their own separate ways.
Since all have to agree that a model is only as good as the forecasts it makes and therefore the current global temperature reductions which are not shown in any of the IPCC climate models means that there is something wrong or something missing. In this book we will show a different way of looking at climate that gives significantly better predictive results. This alternative model is significantly more accurate than that of the IPCC models and is therefore by definition a better model. The reason this is so is that there are many problems with the assumptions used to build the IPCC climate models which are at the heart of the anthropogenic climate change debate, and the debate is far from settled.
The balance of this book is showing how the IPCC climate assumptions are incomplete and how when those assumptions are modified that a model can be designed that actually works. This is original research based on information easily found on the web. It is the opinion of the author that this model is valid and has correctly identified the key variables.
Since this book was written I have made some revisions but the basic principles are the same.
The link below will allow you to download the book, if you want, and at no cost.